Discretionary trades before/after March 2020

Here are the before and after charts of the trade signals for March 2020 in the Discretionary trade signals group on Telegram. Full details can be found in the trade results page HERE.

USD/CAD Long

Issued: 2nd March

Closed USD/CAD long essentially at break-even (a few pips profit) after the Fed’s unexpected rate cut. In hindsight, this trade would have worked beautifully if we kept it open.

Gold short

Issued: 2nd March

Gold short was stopped because of an unexpected 50 basis point rate cut announced by the Fed, causing the dollar to sell off.

EUR/GBP short

Issued: 5th March
EUR/GBP looked promising after breaking its short-term market structure (it created a lower low) but it never got going.

S&P 500 (CFD) short

Issued; 6th March

This has been the best trade to do – the index hit resistance and then dropped like a rock to our target for cool +125 S&P points (1250 regular points!) before free-falling further.

Gold short

Issued; 10th March

The rationale was simple for this trade. Gold was struggling to go higher despite many central banks taking monetary policy action to combat the economic impact of covid-19 outbreak. It took its sweet time and we kept reducing the risk by lowering the stop loss. Eventually it hit our intended target for a cool $40.

EUR/JPY short

Issued; 12th March

Rationale for the trade: Risk off meant XXX/JPY pairs were likely to fall along with stocks amid haven flows into the yen. EUR/JPY created a bull candle a couple of days ago, but there was no follow-thru. The low at ~115.87 thus seemed very likely to break. So we were targeting the next Fibonacci extension levels below that level. However, the EUR/JPY didn’t drop and went on to hit invalidation as yen pairs rebounded along with stocks despite the Dow Jones registering in the previous session its largest daily percentage drop since Black Monday in 1987.

CAD/JPY short

Issued; 13th March

CAD/JPY broke it bullish trend on the hourly chart after failing to hold above the prior high. This looked like a top, only it turned out to be a false signal. The trade hit the invalidation level as price refused to go lower, before stalling on the next day.

WTI crude oil short

Issued; 17th March

Idea was basically selling rounded re-test of old support area, now potentially resistance. Objective was just below the most recent low. The trade worked almost perfectly, giving a P&L of 265 points!

Gold short

Issued; 17th March

This trade went straight to invalidation level as shortly after it was issued, before going on to stage a really nice recovery in the days that followed. This underscores the importance of having an invalidation level and sticking to it.

Gold short

Issued: 18th March

This trade didn’t go anywhere so decided to close it as momentum was lost. We managed to get a few pips from it. It turned out that closing it early was a good decision as it would have gone on to hit the stop loss.

Gold short

Issued: 19th March

After closing the above trade with a small gain, I issued another trade signal to go short in case this particular support level broke down as gold looked really heavy. But as it turned out, I was not reading price action well on this occasion as gold trapped the shorts before rising sharply.

Gold short

Issued: 20th March

We remained focused on gold and issued another sell signal when rates hit resistance. This time the trade hit our first target.

USD/CHF short

Issued: 24th March

As USD started to retreat on Fed stimulus, we turned our focus in shorting the greenback and USD/CHF looked rather toppy. The trade nearly hit the stop loss before turning lower. Once it started to roll over, we adjusted the stop loss lower a few times. We finally closed the trade a couple of days after it was issued for a cool 100 pips.

WTI short

Issued: 27th March

Crude oil consolidated for a while after the big falls, before starting to bleed lower again. So we issued a sell signal based on the renewed breakdown of prices and as soon as it started to roll over, the stop was adjusted. This trade went on to hit the target for a nice 255-point gain!

USD/JPY short

Issued: 30th March

USD/JPY started to roll over like the USD/CHF (see above), so I issued a short trade idea, targeting the 61.8% Fib retracement. After nearly hitting the invalidation level, rates started to break down again – prompting us to lower the stop loss to just above the entry area. However, there was no further follow-through as as rates drifted higher, our adjusted SL was triggered for a few pips loss.


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