Thoughts on EUR/USD at 1.20ish

The EUR/USD has finally dipped back to long-term support around 1.20ish and I see a lot of bearish commentary around it. The bigger picture is still bullish as per the weekly chart, so I will be actively looking to go long on the first sign of a bull signal on the daily or lower time frames.

EUR/USD weekly

The EUR/USD is potentially following the path of 2017-18 as per the chart. If correct, rates could head toward 1.25+ in the next couple of months or so.

With the EUR/USD at these levels, the EUR/GBP and other euro crosses could find support.

As a side note, this is why I decided that the private group should take profit on the first portion of their short trades on the EUR/GBP. It may be the incorrect decision, but there is nothing wrong with taking +123 to +169 pips profit on this slow-moving pair. The second portion can remain open in case it keeps going lower over time. This is the before/after chart of the EUR/GBP trade:

EUR/GBP before
EUR/GBP after

Going back to the EUR/USD topic, I remain bullish on this pair because of the potential return to normalcy with COVID vaccines slowly being rolled out etc. I also think the ECB is done with providing additional measures. The next move is likely to be tapering of QE, but this won’t happen any time soon.

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