Latest Research

S&P at potential resistance after last week’s inverted hammer

Last week all the major indices created inverted hammer candles like this on the S&P 500: If you look at Nasdaq, DAX, Russell you will see similar setups. So, IF those were the bearish reversal candles and after this week’s bounce back into resistance range, then we should be looking for bearish setups. The SPX …

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[Video] S&P 500 arrives at KEY technical area after strong recovery

Thanks to the actions of governments and central banks in response to coronavirus outbreak, investors have been piling into equities over the past several weeks despite the global economy being in a standstill. The rebound has been remarkable. The big question is what’s going to happen next: a continuation higher (to a new all-time high?) …

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Crude oil likely bottomed amid OPEC+ historic deal

Crude oil prices jumped 5% at the Asian open then fell around 2-3% in the immediate reaction to the OPEC+’s historic decision to cut oil output by 9.7 million barrels a day, just shy of the initial proposal of 10 million bpd. Though the reaction hasn’t been great, I think crude prices will likely climb …

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Risk ON

Things have settled down with global stock indices extending their advance following Monday’s big upsurge and risk-sensitive currencies are also pushing higher. Investors are betting that the coronavirus outbreak may have peaked and are ignoring the economic slump that we are in. They are hoping that with the death rate falling in parts of the …

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Stocks relinquish gains as jobless claims surge by 6.6 million

No one used to care about it, but now it is arguably the most important macro data. The weekly unemployment claims hit a new record as 6.6 million people applied for it, doubling from 3.3 million the week prior. As soon as the data came out, European stock indices and US index futures, which had …

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Crude oil heading to $20?

The price of oil is falling sharply again today after a few days of consolidation. The reason is simple: there is a massive imbalance of historic proportions. Global demand has slumped because of the covid-19-related lockdown. Supply, which was already higher than needed, is currently excessive to say the least as Saudi, Russia and the …

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Stocks likely to face stiff resistance despite stimulus measures

After a nice recovery over the last few days, investors will be wondering whether the selling is about to resume again in this bear market. With a growing number of countries in lockdown and the virus still spreading rapidly in Europe and the US, it is very difficult to be optimistic about the global economic …

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Stocks shrugs off Fed’s unlimited Treasury buying pledge

The Federal Reserve threw the kitchen sink at the problem caused by the coronavirus outbreak today and although the markets initially welcomed the news, the gains have since evaporated. The market’s reaction should not come as a surprise given that we have seen similar responses to other stimulus packages announced by central banks and governments …

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